First half of the building materials industry economic situation analysis
First, the building materials industry economic performance
1. Production growth rate down
In the first half of this year more than the size of the building materials industry realized main business income of 2.3 trillion, an increase of 3.3%, the growth rate dropped 10 percentage points over the same period last year, is after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the lowest growth rate. In recent years, the building materials industry has been able to maintain steady growth, although cement and other building materials during the major sectors has fluctuated, but always run smoothly in other industries to make up for the impact of such fluctuations, protect the industry running smoothly. But this year, except for a few sectors, most building materials industry economic operation are facing greater downward pressure. Economic performance this year, the building materials industry can be said to some extent reversed.
This year, the main products in the building materials, glass fiber, etc. in addition to the impact of the product is less investment than to maintain steady growth, cement, plate glass and part of the cement product yields. Cement production in 1990 after 25 years, the first negative growth. The first half of 1.08 billion tons of cement production, down 5.3%, flat glass production 400 million weight cases, down 4.2%. In recent years, the rapid growth of commodity concrete product growth rate to decline significantly in the first half output of 730 million cubic meters, an increase of only 4%; Concrete Pipe and engineering are closely related to the emergence of negative growth.
2. Building materials and merchandise export growth slowed, pulling on the domestic market weakens
In recent years, with the building materials export structure upgrading, building materials export product variety, quality, price increases, the actual number of export slowdown or stagnation of domestic building materials production growth stimulating role in weakening. This year the building materials and non-metallic mineral commodity export growth has significantly declined. First half of the building materials and non-metallic mineral commodity exports $ 18 billion (about 110.1 billion yuan), an increase of 11 percent after deducting price factors, the actual exchange rates and an increase of 1.2%. The first half of building materials and non-metallic mineral commodity FOB prices rose 9.7% this year to increase the amount of merchandise exports of building materials major factor. China's building materials and non-metallic mineral commodity exports since out of the financial crisis, real export growth has bid farewell to more than 20% of high-growth, export growth is hovering at less than 10%, while this year the number of building materials and the actual export growth rate is 2008 financial crisis after the lowest growth rate.
3. Building materials prices continued to decline
This year the building materials and non-minerals prices fell by an average of 2.7% over last year. June 2015 and non-mineral construction materials price index was 95.2%, equivalent to the level of five years ago, in September 2010.
The main building materials prices continue to decline, the first half of a national average ex-factory price of cement per ton over last year fell 29 yuan, down 9.3 percent. June a national average cement prices fell below 270 yuan per ton, lower than five years ago in September 2010 price. Flat glass prices stabilized stabilized this year, but the recovery is weak. June national average prices 62.8 yuan per plate glass weight boxes, in the first half fell by an average 5.4 yuan over the same period last year, down 8 percent, including construction grade plate glass 56 yuan per weight case, in the first half fell by an average 4.1 yuan over the previous year . June 2015 National flat glass prices lower than the average monthly level of six years ago, in May 2009, for the majority of production of construction-grade flat glass enterprises, architecture grade plate glass already in the breakeven point or less.
4. A significant decline in building materials operational benefits
This year more than the size of the building materials industry is operational economy after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the worst level. Building materials prices and sales volume decrease, making the first half of this year, more than the total size of the building materials industry profits of 128.8 billion yuan, down 9.1%, more than half the size of the building materials industry profit margin was 5.7%, down 0.8 percentage points over the same period last year. That influence business efficiency decline, total profits and taxes more than the size of the building materials industry fell in the first half of this year over the size of the building materials industry completed a total profit and tax of 208.1 billion yuan, down 8.2%. In the first half of this year, more than 27 billion yuan interest-scale building materials industry, an increase of 4.6%, enterprise asset-liability ratio 55.4%, down 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year, which, cement, plate glass, concrete and cement products industry balance rate of over 60%, and operation of enterprises in difficulty increase.
5. Fixed asset investment growth rate down
Changes in the national investment in fixed assets with the same trend, the building materials industry fixed asset investment growth continued to slow down this year. This year the building materials industry growth rate of fixed asset investment limit is the lowest growth rate since 2000. First half of the building materials industry completed investment in fixed assets over quota 685 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, the growth rate continued to decline this year, down 3.8 percentage points over the same period last year, the decline has been expanded. Among them, the cement products industry, building stone mining and processing industry, the amount of investment industry continues to occupy the top two. But the first half of the concrete products industry and fixed asset investment growth was 5.7%, compared to decline significantly over the same period last year growth of 15.5%; manufacturing cement, plate glass manufacturing industry investment in fixed assets over the limit down 10.7%, respectively 16.7% Investment desire to continue to weaken. Building materials industry fixed asset investment growth down, especially investments decline of traditional industries, resulting in industrial restructuring underpowered, has seriously affected the development speed upgrade traditional industries and building materials industry restructuring.
Second, building materials and industrial economic operation in Problems
1. Market demand continued to weaken a direct result of growth in Building Material industry difficult
In the current industry structure, the building materials market, especially in the cement market by the impact of the national fixed asset investment is still great. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, the first half of this year, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) complete the amount of 23.7 trillion yuan, up 11.4 percent, the growth rate down 5.9 percentage points over the same period last year, the lowest growth rate since the same period in 2001. Contrast investment growth, construction and installation volume fell faster. National fixed-asset investment in the first half of this year (excluding rural households) complete construction and installation volume 16.5 trillion yuan, up 13.2 percent, the growth rate down 7.2 percentage points over the same period last year. Continued decline in fixed asset investment growth, reduced the demand for cement and other major building materials, a direct result of the decline in cement production, prices and benefits fall in prices. In addition, this year the main consumer areas of building materials frequent rain, the building materials market demand by rainfall and other weather factors is further compressed.
2. Background in the industry growth rate of decline, companies significantly increased polarization
By market supply and demand imbalances affect the first half of this year, a loss of building materials enterprises above designated size was 16%, an increase of 1 percentage point year on year. Among them, the loss-making cement enterprises above designated size 39.0%, an increase of 11 percentage points, the amount of loss-making enterprises 11.3 billion yuan, an increase of 81.1%; scale flat glass business loss was 36.6%, enterprises suffered losses totaling 2.25 billion yuan, an increase of 33.7%. In loss-making enterprises continue to expand the case, cement, plate glass enterprises polarization further.
3. Traditional industry overcapacity problem is still not effectively alleviate enterprises underemployment rate
Building materials market supply and demand imbalance is the main product Building Material prices continue to decline, the root causes of economic decline. Building materials industry, especially traditional industry overcapacity problem already very serious, slow growth in the market this year, the situation is even more prominent. Currently the national cement production capacity has more than 3.4 billion tons, capacity utilization is low, some companies this year has been discontinued for more than 90 days, of which a large number of low capacity utilization of small cement grinding station is an important factor in the high rate of productivity. At present nearly 2,000 businesses cement grinding, grinding capacity of 1.45 billion tons of enterprises, of which the annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of the following small grinding business about 1000, capacity 300 million tons. These small grinding station high energy consumption, resource utilization is low, underemployment rate, market supply side regulation to cement a great deal of pressure.
4. Building materials still need to accelerate industrial restructuring
This year the traditional building materials industry is facing the most severe since the new century situation, enterprises above designated size main business income growth declined in the first half increased by only 0.15 percent month; building materials industry in recent years has been able to maintain steady and rapid growth, low energy consumption and supporting role processed products industry contributed, before February this year, more than the size of energy consumption and processed products business revenue proportion of the total building materials industry the main business income 50.4%, for the first time more than the traditional industry, year on year growth 12.8 %, but with the tightening of the building materials industry development environment, its growth rate also slowed sharply in the first half growth rate of 6.8%, in the building materials industry share fell to 49.5 percent. While low energy consumption and processing products industry is still promote the building materials industry has maintained an important impetus for growth, but its development is still subject to the impact of traditional industries, compared with traditional industrial foundation of its development is still insufficient. In addition, the market demand and by the lack of technical reserves weaker influence, slow development of new industries of building materials, is currently in the building materials industry accounted for only about 10 percent, have not been able to form a new growth point, but also far from the building materials industry to play its industrial restructuring effect.
5. Building materials companies receivables stubbornly high enterprise funds tense
Net national-scale building materials industry 520.5 billion yuan in the first half of accounts receivable, an increase of 9.3%. Among them, the cement manufacturing Accounts receivable, net 81.76 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%, net accounts receivable with the same period the proportion of main business revenue reached 20%, Net accounts receivable and Cement Products Manufacturing 2441 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4% over the same period the proportion of main business income of 50%. Reduce corporate cash withdrawn from circulation, increased business risk of bad debts, reducing the corporate capital turnover rate, the first half of the building materials enterprises liquidity flow rate decreased by 1.2 times.
Third, the annual building materials industry running situation forecast
In the three major demand-pull growth in the building materials industry: since 2005 the RMB exchange reform, "five" in the late China's building materials and non-metallic mineral exports accounted for the proportion of industry sales continued to hover at 4.6%; "1025" period building materials industry to accelerate the pace of industrial restructuring, decoration market consumption and downstream industry demand-pull effect gradually increased, but consumption and downstream industry demand-pull effect is still very weak; the current growth of around 85 percent of building materials are still dependent on investment drive. Since this year's investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) growth continued to slow, reduce investment increment year, a direct result of the building materials market demand continues to weaken. June national fixed asset investment growth stabilized stabilized, for the building materials industry is a good news, indicating that the building materials industry has eased the external environment changes. According to the law industry over the years the building materials industry, building materials industry 9,10 two months is the peak season, if the national fixed asset investment growth steady rise in August, building materials industry economic situation will bottom out in the third quarter, the annual growth rate is expected to actually building materials industry will be around 5%.
Analysis Source: China Building Materials Daily